Gambler’s Conceit
Coined by behavioral economist David J. Ewing, the term “Gambler’s Conceit” refers to a fallacious belief held by many gamblers that they can stop whenever they want, but that they won’t stop until they’re ahead.
This is considered to be a fallacy because the irrational drive to gamble until one gets ahead is already a problem, and that problem is compounded by another (in the moment, believable) argument that arises when one is on a winning streak: I’m on a roll, why would I stop now?
Behavioral economics is the study of psychological factors related to why we do what we do, especially regarding how we optimize—or fail to optimize—the management of scarce resources.
A pure version of economic theory would have all of us act in accordance with raw data and untarnished likelihoods, but few if any of us can actually claim to be the idealized, truly rational “homo economicus” who makes decisions without being swayed by emotions or similar psychological debasements.
Gambling, in general, is already laden with irrational motivations and perceptual distortions, including the Gambler’s Fallacy, which points at our tendency to (incorrectly) link wins and losses and streaks in such a way that we come to believe a sequence of losses will prime us for a win; that’s alongside an optimistic outlook that can cause us to ignore inconvenient realities like house advantage, which favors casinos (and other game-makers) so that, over time, they will tend to win even if there are opportunities for periodic, non-house victories along the way.
The Gambler’s Conceit can be seen in non-gambling aspects of life, as well, including in folks who engage in high-risk activities—things like drugs and drinking and even eating gobs of unhealthy food on a regular basis—and who claim (and even believe) they can stop at any time, so the risks associated with their behaviors aren’t a problem.
Just as with gamblers who genuinely believe they can stop whenever they want, but whose fluctuating beliefs and biases tend to keep them locked into a particular pattern of behaviors, though, many of us find the prime moment for stopping never arrives, which leaves us prone, over the long-haul, to the many negative outcomes we believed we could avoid by stopping at precisely the right moment.