Emergency Thinking

Despite warnings from prominent scientists that there's a 20% chance of a new, Omicron-scale COVID-19 outbreak sometime in the next two years (with one such scientist saying it's probably closer to 40%), and despite ongoing issues with the disease—from a death-rate that's still claiming more than 1,000 lives each week, to chronic "long-COVID" infections that don't go away for months or years after the disease has technically lapsed—the US government has declared the pandemic over, and the World Health Organization has done the same.

There are solid arguments for why maintaining an ongoing pandemic posture might be prudent, as that label allows the relevant organizations, internationally and nationally, to deploy more resources than would typically be delegated for disease-related investments, and allows undertakings that would generally be cumbersome and time-consuming to be fast-tracked.

At the same time, maintaining what amounts to an emergency posture for years can be harmful in other, less-obvious ways.

Official declarations and mobilizations of this kind can tweak the decision-making process for economic entities and individuals, causing businesses to hunker down and become more conservative (in terms of their investments), and consumers to be less spendy, less forward-thinking, and more likely to sock their money away in savings accounts than to buy things, invest in assets, or prepare for the future (all things associated with a strong, resilient economy).

This, in turn, can artificially mess-with economic numbers, tweaking everything from inflation to interest rates, killing off businesses, increasing public debt levels, and causing people to make career decisions they wouldn't normally make, sans that moderate level of panic that's been woven into the background of everyday life.

The maintenance of a publicly declared emergency state can influence our psychological well-being, as well.

There's evidence that recessions—localized or global—can increase rates of depression, self-harm, and suicidal ideations and attempts.

More people tend to utilize available mental health resources during these sorts of emergencies, which is arguably a good thing, but that increased use is sparked by heightened levels of psychological distress throughout society, which is generally less-good.

Economic emergencies have been associated with higher levels of perceived interdependence, which isn't always negative, but it's strongly correlated with tribal thinking and racial animosity: a sense of personal independence is linked with a greater acceptance of diversity, while interdependence has been tied to higher levels of prejudice toward those we consider to be part of "out groups."

Overconfidence to the point of mania often precedes economic recessions and depressions, in some cases contributing to bubbles popping and resources being funneled into efforts that don't ultimately pay off. This can then lead to a crisis of confidence in oneself, in social structures and government agencies, and a sense of betrayal aimed at everything from supposed experts to supposedly safe investments (keeping one's money in failing banks, for instance, or putting one's money into seemingly secure investment-generating assets, only to have interest levels for other sorts of assets spike).

We see similar ebbs, flows, peaks, and craters in extreme emotions (and the manias and exhaustions associated with them) during pandemics, as well.

Our norms are upset, our perception of what's safe and what's not changes seemingly overnight, and our sense of what's normal and what the future might hold is likewise upended—in some cases rationally, in other cases less-so.

The direct impacts of a pandemic, then, can be substantial, especially when they leave us socially isolated and unable to engage in familiar, soothing activities for long periods of time.

But the psychological, emotional, and other internal components of extended emergency periods can also be pointed and long-lasting, and there's a good chance we'll be coping with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic—individually and societally—for decades to come, even if another outbreak-scale wave of infections never manifests.